Should I drop AJ Barner for Michael Mayer?

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

This week’s projections are 4.9 FP for AJ Barner and 4.5 FP for Michael Mayer. Michael Mayer is behind by 0.5 FP across the evaluated weeks and ahead by 2.0 FP in the Weeks 15–18 outlook. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. These are player forecast totals. Use your league’s playoff weeks and roster needs to make the final call.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 4:48 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

AJ Barner

TE · SEA · vs ARI

Stats & schedule ›

4.9FF projected FP

Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

Planning a bid? AJ Barner FAAB guide ↗

7.3%rostered on ESPN-0.07 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Michael Mayer

TE · LV · vs SF

Stats & schedule ›

4.5FF projected FP

Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

22.4%rostered on ESPN-0.10 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

AJ Barner is 7.3% rostered; Michael Mayer is 22.4% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

AJ Barner

AJ Barner projects for 4.9 Standard points against ARI this week. His recent scoring average is 2.8 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 7.3% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.07 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 4.9 FP -0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.6 FP
Sleeper: 5.0 FP
FantasyPros: 4.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 5.8 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer projects for 4.5 Standard points against SF this week. His recent scoring average is 6.0 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 22.4% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.10 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 4.5 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.1 FP
Sleeper: 4.2 FP
FantasyPros: 4.4 FP
Boosted Trees: 4.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 6, 4:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. For a bye replacement, the hold decision starts after the bye. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	AJ Barner	Michael Mayer
Next 3 weeks	10.2 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · Bye Week 11 · cover needed	12.8 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	41.6 FPHigher projection9/9 scheduled games projected · Bye Week 11 · cover needed	41.1 FP9/9 scheduled games projected · Bye Week 13 · cover needed
Weeks 15–18	17.3 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	19.3 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	AJ Barner	Michael Mayer
Week 9	4.9 FPvs ARIHigher projection	4.5 FPvs SF
Week 10	5.3 FPvs LVHigher projection	4.0 FPvs SEA
Week 11	BYE	4.4 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 12	4.3 FPvs SF	4.4 FPvs CLEHigher projection
Week 13	5.1 FPvs DALHigher projection	BYE
Week 14	4.7 FPvs NYGHigher projection	4.6 FPvs LAC
Week 15	4.3 FPvs PHI	4.4 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 16	4.3 FPvs LAR	5.0 FPvs TENHigher projection
Week 17	4.6 FPvs CAR	5.3 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 18	4.2 FPvs LAR	4.6 FPvs KCHigher projection