Should I drop Sam Darnold for Michael Penix Jr.?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Michael Penix Jr. is behind by 0.7 FP this week, ahead by 9.3 FP across the remaining schedule, and ahead by 12.2 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 2:23 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Stats & schedule ›

15.3FF projected FP

Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

30.4%rostered on ESPN-0.17 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs TB

Stats & schedule ›

14.6FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

18.1%rostered on ESPN+1.11 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Sam Darnold is 30.4% rostered; Michael Penix Jr. is 18.1% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold projects for 15.3 Standard points against CHI this week. His recent scoring average is 11.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 30.4% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.17 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 15.3 FP
ESPN: 14.5 FP
Sleeper: 14.9 FP
FantasyPros: 16.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.4 FP
Workload: 14.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 6.2–23.7 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix Jr. projects for 14.6 Standard points against TB this week. His recent scoring average is 19.3 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 18.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 1.11 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 14.6 FP
ESPN: 15.8 FP
Sleeper: 14.3 FP
FantasyPros: 14.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 13.1 FP
Workload: 15.9 FP
Monte Carlo: 16.6 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 7.0–26.6 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 2:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Sam Darnold	Michael Penix Jr.
Next 3 weeks	49.3 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	43.8 FP3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	145.0 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	154.4 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	51.9 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	64.1 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Sam Darnold	Michael Penix Jr.
Week 8	15.3 FPvs CHIHigher projection	14.6 FPvs TB
Week 9	17.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection	15.6 FPvs CIN
Week 10	16.4 FPvs LVHigher projection	13.6 FPvs KC
Week 11	BYE	BYE
Week 12	13.0 FPvs SFHigher projection	12.4 FPvs MIN
Week 13	16.2 FPvs DAL	19.6 FPvs DETHigher projection
Week 14	14.5 FPvs NYG	14.5 FPvs CLE
Week 15	13.7 FPvs PHI	18.3 FPvs WASHigher projection
Week 16	12.7 FPvs LAR	14.6 FPvs TBHigher projection
Week 17	13.2 FPvs CAR	16.3 FPvs NOHigher projection
Week 18	12.3 FPvs LAR	14.9 FPvs CARHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 2:38 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

14.6 FP18.8 FP