Should I drop Sam Darnold for Geno Smith?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Geno Smith is ahead by 3.1 FP this week, ahead by 7.3 FP across the remaining schedule, and ahead by 8.8 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 12:34 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Stats & schedule ›

15.2FF projected FP

Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

30.4%rostered on ESPN-0.17 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs LV

Stats & schedule ›

18.3FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

30.0%rostered on ESPN+4.01 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Sam Darnold is 30.4% rostered; Geno Smith is 30.0% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold projects for 15.2 Standard points against CHI this week. His recent scoring average is 11.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 30.4% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.17 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 15.2 FP
ESPN: 14.5 FP
Sleeper: 14.9 FP
FantasyPros: 16.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.4 FP
Workload: 14.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 6.2–23.7 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Geno Smith

Geno Smith projects for 18.3 Standard points against LV this week. His recent scoring average is 15.2 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 5%. He is rostered in 30.0% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 4.01 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 18.3 FP
ESPN: 18.4 FP
Sleeper: 16.5 FP
FantasyPros: 17.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.3 FP
Workload: 17.6 FP
Monte Carlo: 18.7 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 8.1–30.0 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 12:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Sam Darnold	Geno Smith
Next 3 weeks	49.1 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	47.4 FP3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	144.7 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	151.9 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	52.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	60.8 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Sam Darnold	Geno Smith
Week 8	15.2 FPvs CHI	18.3 FPvs LVHigher projection
Week 9	17.5 FPvs ARIHigher projection	11.8 FPvs KC
Week 10	16.4 FPvs LV	17.3 FPvs BUFHigher projection
Week 11	BYE	13.7 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 12	13.0 FPvs SF	17.0 FPvs MIAHigher projection
Week 13	16.2 FPvs DALHigher projection	BYE
Week 14	14.5 FPvs NYGHigher projection	13.0 FPvs DEN
Week 15	13.7 FPvs PHI	18.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 16	12.7 FPvs LAR	14.5 FPvs NEHigher projection
Week 17	13.2 FPvs CARHigher projection	10.9 FPvs MIN
Week 18	12.3 FPvs LAR	16.8 FPvs BUFHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 12:44 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

14.6 FP18.7 FP