Should I drop Sam Darnold for Aaron Rodgers?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Aaron Rodgers is behind by 0.1 FP this week, ahead by 8.7 FP across the remaining schedule, and ahead by 11.4 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 12:49 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Stats & schedule ›

15.2FF projected FP

Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

30.4%rostered on ESPN-0.17 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PIT · vs CLE

Stats & schedule ›

15.0FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

44.3%rostered on ESPN-1.79 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Sam Darnold is 30.4% rostered; Aaron Rodgers is 44.3% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold projects for 15.2 Standard points against CHI this week. His recent scoring average is 11.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 30.4% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.17 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 15.2 FP
ESPN: 14.5 FP
Sleeper: 14.9 FP
FantasyPros: 16.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.4 FP
Workload: 14.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 6.2–23.7 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers projects for 15.0 Standard points against CLE this week. His recent scoring average is 17.0 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 44.3% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 1.79 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 15.0 FP
ESPN: 15.1 FP
Sleeper: 15.8 FP
FantasyPros: 15.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 15.3 FP
Workload: 15.1 FP
Monte Carlo: 15.3 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 6.4–24.3 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 12:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Sam Darnold	Aaron Rodgers
Next 3 weeks	49.1 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	29.9 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Remaining regular-season schedule	144.7 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	153.3 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	52.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	63.3 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Sam Darnold	Aaron Rodgers
Week 8	15.2 FPvs CHIHigher projection	15.0 FPvs CLE
Week 9	17.5 FPvs ARIHigher projection	BYE
Week 10	16.4 FPvs LVHigher projection	14.9 FPvs CIN
Week 11	BYE	15.5 FPvs PHIHigher projection
Week 12	13.0 FPvs SF	13.9 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 13	16.2 FPvs DAL	16.3 FPvs HOUHigher projection
Week 14	14.5 FPvs NYGHigher projection	14.4 FPvs JAC
Week 15	13.7 FPvs PHI	16.0 FPvs BALHigher projection
Week 16	12.7 FPvs LAR	15.2 FPvs CARHigher projection
Week 17	13.2 FPvs CAR	16.6 FPvs TENHigher projection
Week 18	12.3 FPvs LAR	15.5 FPvs BALHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 12:58 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

14.6 FP18.7 FP