Should I drop Patrick Mahomes II for Geno Smith?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: keep Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II retains a 50.6 FP remaining-schedule advantage. The current-week projection also gives no clear reason to make this drop. Check for a lower-cost roster spot if you need coverage. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Nov 3, 2:19 AM ET

THE WEEK 9 FILE · REST OF SEASONBraelon and the Jets.Hall’s return. Cooper’s target swing. The roles and routes behind your next Jets decision.Read the analysis ↗

PLAYER TO DROP

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

19.3FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

89.5%rostered on ESPN-0.04 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs KC

Stats & schedule ›

13.0FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

32.8%rostered on ESPN0.00 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Patrick Mahomes II is 89.5% rostered; Geno Smith is 32.8% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 19.3 Standard points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 14.0 FP. He is rostered in 89.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.04 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 19.3 FP
ESPN: 18.2 FP
Sleeper: 20.8 FP
FantasyPros: 19.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.0 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Geno Smith

Geno Smith projects for 13.0 Standard points against KC this week. His recent scoring average is 17.8 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 3.75%. He is rostered in 32.8% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.00 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 13.0 FP
ESPN: 14.0 FP
Sleeper: 12.8 FP
FantasyPros: 13.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 11.4 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Patrick Mahomes II	Geno Smith
Next 3 weeks	59.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	43.3 FP3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	187.3 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected	136.7 FP9/9 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	74.4 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	61.4 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Patrick Mahomes II	Geno Smith
Week 9	19.3 FPvs NYJHigher projection	13.0 FPvs KC
Week 10	17.3 FPvs ATLHigher projection	16.1 FPvs BUF
Week 11	22.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection	14.2 FPvs LAC
Week 12	19.0 FPvs BUFHigher projection	18.1 FPvs MIA
Week 13	16.4 FPvs LARHigher projection	BYE
Week 14	18.2 FPvs CINHigher projection	13.9 FPvs DEN
Week 15	18.2 FPvs NE	19.0 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 16	17.5 FPvs SFHigher projection	14.7 FPvs NE
Week 17	17.6 FPvs LACHigher projection	11.9 FPvs MIN
Week 18	21.2 FPvs LVHigher projection	15.7 FPvs BUF