Should I drop Kyler Murray for Patrick Mahomes II?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: add Patrick Mahomes II for Kyler Murray

This week’s projections are 10.2 FP for Kyler Murray and 19.4 FP for Patrick Mahomes II. Patrick Mahomes II leads by 32.8 FP across the evaluated weeks and holds up in the Weeks 15–18 outlook. These are player forecast totals. Use your league’s playoff weeks and roster needs to make the final call. Kyler Murray is questionable; an injury designation alone is not a reason to drop him.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 3:15 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN · vs BUF

Stats & schedule ›

10.2FF projected FP

Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET

Check current availability

53.5%rostered on ESPN-2.83 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

19.4FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

92.7%rostered on ESPN+0.36 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Kyler Murray is 53.5% rostered; Patrick Mahomes II is 92.7% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray projects for 10.2 Standard points against BUF this week. His recent scoring average is 16.9 FP. He is rostered in 53.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 2.83 percentage points. His injury designation needs monitoring; it does not by itself justify dropping him. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 10.2 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
FantasyPros: 5.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 19.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 19.4 Standard points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 14.0 FP. He is rostered in 92.7% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.36 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 19.4 FP +1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 18.2 FP
Sleeper: 21.0 FP
FantasyPros: 20.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 6, 2:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. For a bye replacement, the hold decision starts after the bye. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Kyler Murray	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	37.7 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	59.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	155.2 FP10/10 scheduled games projected	188.0 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	71.2 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	74.1 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Kyler Murray	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 9	10.2 FPvs BUF	19.4 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 10	13.5 FPvs GB	17.4 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 11	14.0 FPvs SF	22.4 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 12	15.0 FPvs ATL	19.0 FPvs BUFHigher projection
Week 13	16.0 FPvs CAR	16.4 FPvs LARHigher projection
Week 14	15.3 FPvs NE	19.3 FPvs CINHigher projection
Week 15	20.4 FPvs DETHigher projection	18.6 FPvs NE
Week 16	18.4 FPvs WASHigher projection	17.5 FPvs SF
Week 17	16.3 FPvs NYJ	17.4 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 18	16.1 FPvs CHI	20.7 FPvs LVHigher projection