Should I drop Justin Herbert for Patrick Mahomes II?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Ultra Smash: add Patrick Mahomes II for Justin Herbert

This week’s projections are 12.1 FP for Justin Herbert and 19.4 FP for Patrick Mahomes II. Patrick Mahomes II leads by 65.4 FP across the evaluated weeks and holds up in the Weeks 15–18 outlook. These are player forecast totals. Use your league’s playoff weeks and roster needs to make the final call.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 4:48 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · vs HOU

Stats & schedule ›

12.1FF projected FP

Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

32.5%rostered on ESPN-0.43 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

19.4FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

92.7%rostered on ESPN+0.33 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Justin Herbert is 32.5% rostered; Patrick Mahomes II is 92.7% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert projects for 12.1 Standard points against HOU this week. His recent scoring average is 8.3 FP. He is rostered in 32.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.43 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 12.1 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 12.5 FP
Sleeper: 12.7 FP
FantasyPros: 14.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 12.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 19.4 Standard points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 14.0 FP. He is rostered in 92.7% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.33 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 19.4 FP +1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 18.2 FP
Sleeper: 21.0 FP
FantasyPros: 20.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 6, 4:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. For a bye replacement, the hold decision starts after the bye. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Justin Herbert	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	37.6 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	59.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	122.5 FP10/10 scheduled games projected	188.0 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	48.0 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	74.1 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Justin Herbert	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 9	12.1 FPvs HOU	19.4 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 10	12.3 FPvs BAL	17.4 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 11	13.2 FPvs NYJ	22.4 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 12	12.5 FPvs NE	19.0 FPvs BUFHigher projection
Week 13	10.3 FPvs TB	16.4 FPvs LARHigher projection
Week 14	14.2 FPvs LV	19.3 FPvs CINHigher projection
Week 15	11.5 FPvs SF	18.6 FPvs NEHigher projection
Week 16	14.3 FPvs MIA	17.5 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 17	11.2 FPvs KC	17.4 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 18	11.0 FPvs DEN	20.7 FPvs LVHigher projection