Should I drop C.J. Stroud for Patrick Mahomes II?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Lean: add Patrick Mahomes II for C.J. Stroud

This week’s projections are 16.0 FP for C.J. Stroud and 19.4 FP for Patrick Mahomes II. Patrick Mahomes II leads by 17.8 FP across the evaluated weeks and holds up in the Weeks 15–18 outlook. These are player forecast totals. Use your league’s playoff weeks and roster needs to make the final call.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 3:15 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU · vs LAC

Stats & schedule ›

16.0FF projected FP

Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

69.7%rostered on ESPN+0.44 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Patrick Mahomes II

QB · KC · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

19.4FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

92.7%rostered on ESPN+0.36 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

C.J. Stroud is 69.7% rostered; Patrick Mahomes II is 92.7% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud projects for 16.0 Standard points against LAC this week. His recent scoring average is 19.8 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 5%. He is rostered in 69.7% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.44 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 16.0 FP -0.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 16.9 FP
Sleeper: 15.9 FP
FantasyPros: 17.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 17.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Patrick Mahomes II

Patrick Mahomes II projects for 19.4 Standard points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 14.0 FP. He is rostered in 92.7% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.36 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 19.4 FP +1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 18.2 FP
Sleeper: 21.0 FP
FantasyPros: 20.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 6, 2:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. For a bye replacement, the hold decision starts after the bye. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	C.J. Stroud	Patrick Mahomes II
Next 3 weeks	51.3 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	59.2 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	170.2 FP10/10 scheduled games projected	188.0 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	66.9 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	74.1 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	C.J. Stroud	Patrick Mahomes II
Week 9	16.0 FPvs LAC	19.4 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 10	15.8 FPvs CLE	17.4 FPvs ATLHigher projection
Week 11	19.5 FPvs IND	22.4 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 12	17.3 FPvs BAL	19.0 FPvs BUFHigher projection
Week 13	15.2 FPvs PIT	16.4 FPvs LARHigher projection
Week 14	19.4 FPvs WASHigher projection	19.3 FPvs CIN
Week 15	16.0 FPvs JAC	18.6 FPvs NEHigher projection
Week 16	16.9 FPvs PHI	17.5 FPvs SFHigher projection
Week 17	15.3 FPvs GB	17.4 FPvs LACHigher projection
Week 18	18.7 FPvs TEN	20.7 FPvs LVHigher projection