Should I drop Josh Downs for Pat Freiermuth?

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Pat Freiermuth is behind by 0.8 FP this week, ahead by 0.5 FP across the remaining schedule, and ahead by 1.8 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team. They share FLEX eligibility, but this move changes your dedicated-position depth.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 2:55 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Josh Downs

WR · IND · vs JAC

Stats & schedule ›

9.7FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

63.5%rostered on ESPN-0.38 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Pat Freiermuth

TE · PIT · vs CLE

Stats & schedule ›

8.9FF projected FP

Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

49.6%rostered on ESPN-1.31 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Josh Downs is 63.5% rostered; Pat Freiermuth is 49.6% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Josh Downs

Josh Downs projects for 9.7 PPR points against JAC this week. His recent scoring average is 6.7 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 6.25%. He is rostered in 63.5% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.38 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 9.7 FP
ESPN: 8.4 FP
Sleeper: 10.2 FP
FantasyPros: 8.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.1 FP
Workload: 6.8 FP
Monte Carlo: 7.3 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:26 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 0.7–14.7 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth projects for 8.9 PPR points against CLE this week. His recent scoring average is 9.5 FP. He is rostered in 49.6% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 1.31 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 8.9 FP
ESPN: 8.5 FP
Sleeper: 9.3 FP
FantasyPros: 8.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.0 FP
Workload: 7.1 FP
Monte Carlo: 7.1 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:26 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: -0.3–15.8 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 2:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Josh Downs	Pat Freiermuth
Next 3 weeks	28.9 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	18.4 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Remaining regular-season schedule	91.0 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye	91.5 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	35.4 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	37.2 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Josh Downs	Pat Freiermuth
Week 8	9.7 FPvs JACHigher projection	8.9 FPvs CLE
Week 9	10.4 FPvs DALHigher projection	BYE
Week 10	8.7 FPvs MIA	9.5 FPvs CINHigher projection
Week 11	9.2 FPvs HOUHigher projection	9.0 FPvs PHI
Week 12	8.6 FPvs NYG	8.6 FPvs DEN
Week 13	BYE	9.0 FPvs HOUHigher projection
Week 14	8.9 FPvs PHI	9.3 FPvs JACHigher projection
Week 15	9.1 FPvs TEN	9.5 FPvs BALHigher projection
Week 16	8.9 FPvs CIN	9.1 FPvs CARHigher projection
Week 17	8.2 FPvs CLE	9.3 FPvs TENHigher projection
Week 18	9.3 FPvs JAC	9.4 FPvs BALHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 2:56 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · FLEX

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

9.1 FP12.6 FP