Should I drop Noah Gray for Dalton Kincaid?

THE DROP / ADD CALL

Ultra Smash: add Dalton Kincaid for Noah Gray

This week’s projections are 3.8 FP for Noah Gray and 7.6 FP for Dalton Kincaid. Dalton Kincaid leads by 51.5 FP across the evaluated weeks and holds up in the Weeks 15–18 outlook. These are player forecast totals. Use your league’s playoff weeks and roster needs to make the final call.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 5:32 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Noah Gray

TE · KC · vs NYJ

Stats & schedule ›

3.8FF projected FP

Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

0.3%rostered on ESPN0.00 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Dalton Kincaid

TE · BUF · vs MIN

Stats & schedule ›

7.6FF projected FP

Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET

77.4%rostered on ESPN-0.08 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Noah Gray is 0.3% rostered; Dalton Kincaid is 77.4% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Noah Gray

Noah Gray projects for 3.8 Half-PPR points against NYJ this week. His recent scoring average is 7.1 FP. He is rostered in 0.3% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.00 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 3.8 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.1 FP
Sleeper: 3.5 FP
FantasyPros: 3.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 2.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid projects for 7.6 Half-PPR points against MIN this week. His recent scoring average is 11.9 FP. The defensive matchup reduces the FF estimate by 10%. He is rostered in 77.4% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.08 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

FF projection: 7.6 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.9 FP
Sleeper: 7.8 FP
FantasyPros: 7.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Roster snapshot Nov 6, 5:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. For a bye replacement, the hold decision starts after the bye. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Noah Gray	Dalton Kincaid
Next 3 weeks	12.0 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	27.0 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	40.1 FP10/10 scheduled games projected	91.6 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected
Weeks 15–18	16.2 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	37.7 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Noah Gray	Dalton Kincaid
Week 9	3.8 FPvs NYJ	7.6 FPvs MINHigher projection
Week 10	3.9 FPvs ATL	9.2 FPvs NYJHigher projection
Week 11	4.3 FPvs ARI	10.2 FPvs MIAHigher projection
Week 12	4.0 FPvs BUF	9.5 FPvs KCHigher projection
Week 13	3.8 FPvs LAR	9.2 FPvs NEHigher projection
Week 14	4.1 FPvs CIN	8.3 FPvs GBHigher projection
Week 15	4.0 FPvs NE	9.2 FPvs CHIHigher projection
Week 16	3.9 FPvs SF	9.1 FPvs DENHigher projection
Week 17	3.8 FPvs LAC	10.2 FPvs MIAHigher projection
Week 18	4.5 FPvs LV	9.2 FPvs NYJHigher projection