Should I start Harrison Butker or Jake Bates in Week 9 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Jake Bates

+0.7 projected edge · Standard

Start Jake Bates over Harrison Butker for Week 9 Standard: 9.2 projected points versus 8.5.

Jake Bates: 7.5 FP recent scoring average.
Harrison Butker: 6.7 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, 4:48 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Jake Bates

K · DETStats & schedule

9.2FF projected

↓ -0.3 vs ESPN

at MIA

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Harrison Butker

K · KCStats & schedule

8.5FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

vs NYJ

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Jake Bates

FF projection: 9.2 FP -0.3vs ESPN
ESPN: 9.5 FP
Sleeper: 8.3 FP
FantasyPros: 8.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Jake Bates faces MIA in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 7.5 fantasy points.

Harrison Butker

FF projection: 8.5 FP -0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 9.1 FP
Sleeper: 7.9 FP
FantasyPros: 8.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Harrison Butker faces NYJ in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 6.7 fantasy points.

Jake Bates projects for 9.2 points in standard scoring, 0.7 more than Harrison Butker. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 4:48 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

K. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

8.210.6

FF MEAN

1
Brandon AubreyK · DAL vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.5Sleeper 10.0FantasyPros 9.1
10.6Expected FP
2
Tyler BassK · BUF vs MINMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.5Sleeper 8.2FantasyPros 8.2
10.0Expected FP
3
Ka'imi FairbairnK · HOU vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.8Sleeper 9.0FantasyPros 8.7
9.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.