Should I start Drew Sample or Theo Johnson in Week 9 (2026, PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Drew Sample

+0.8 projected edge · PPR

Start Drew Sample over Theo Johnson for Week 9 PPR: 3.4 projected points versus 2.6.

Drew Sample: 5.2 FP recent scoring average.
Theo Johnson: 7.5% matchup reduction against PHI.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:14 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Drew Sample

TE · CINStats & schedule

3.4FF projected

↓ -0.4 vs ESPN

at ATL

Sun 9:30 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Theo Johnson

TE · NYGStats & schedule

2.6FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

at PHI

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Drew Sample

FF projection: 3.4 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.8 FP
Sleeper: 2.8 FP
FantasyPros: 3.0 FP

Drew Sample faces ATL in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 5.2 fantasy points.

Theo Johnson

FF projection: 2.6 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 2.6 FP
Sleeper: 2.8 FP
FantasyPros: 3.1 FP

Theo Johnson faces PHI in Week 9. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%.

Drew Sample projects for 3.4 points in PPR scoring, 0.8 more than Theo Johnson. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:14 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

14.318.6

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 18.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.2Sleeper 18.6FantasyPros 17.2
18.5Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.2Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 15.5
17.2Expected FP
3
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.3Sleeper 15.5FantasyPros 15.5
15.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.