Should I start Charlie Smyth or Jake Elliott in Week 9 (2026, PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Start Charlie Smyth

+2.2 projected edge · PPR

Start Charlie Smyth over Jake Elliott for Week 9 PPR: 7.3 projected points versus 5.1.

Jake Elliott: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Jake Elliott · Injury report dated Nov 5, 2026, 7:22 PM ET

Charlie Smyth: 3 external sources project points.
Jake Elliott: 3.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, 5:18 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Charlie Smyth

K · NOStats & schedule

7.3FF projected

↓ -0.1 vs ESPN

vs CLE

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jake Elliott

K · PHIStats & schedule

5.1FF projected

↓ -0.9 vs ESPN

vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Charlie Smyth

FF projection: 7.3 FP -0.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.4 FP
Sleeper: 7.3 FP
FantasyPros: 7.1 FP

Charlie Smyth faces CLE in Week 9.

Jake Elliott

FF projection: 5.1 FP -0.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.0 FP
Sleeper: 6.4 FP
FantasyPros: 5.9 FP

Jake Elliott faces NYG in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 3.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 7.5%. Jake Elliott is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Charlie Smyth projects for 7.3 points, 2.2 more than Jake Elliott.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 5:18 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

K. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

8.210.9

FF MEAN

1
Brandon AubreyK · DAL vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.5Sleeper 10.0FantasyPros 9.1
10.9Expected FP
2
Tyler BassK · BUF vs MINMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.5Sleeper 8.2FantasyPros 8.2
9.8Expected FP
3
Ka'imi FairbairnK · HOU vs LACSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.8Sleeper 9.0FantasyPros 8.7
9.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.