Should I start Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones in Week 9 (2026, PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Start Daniel Jones

+3.0 projected edge · PPR

Start Daniel Jones over Baker Mayfield for Week 9 PPR: 14.7 projected points versus 11.8.

Daniel Jones · Injury report dated Nov 2, 2026, 2:27 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 6, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Baker Mayfield · Injury report dated Nov 1, 2026, 9:26 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 6, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Daniel Jones: 8.0 FP recent scoring average.
Daniel Jones: 8.75% matchup lift against DAL.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:14 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Daniel Jones

QB · INDStats & schedule

14.7FF projected

↑ +1.3 vs ESPN

vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Baker Mayfield

QB · TBStats & schedule

11.8FF projected

↓ -0.9 vs ESPN

at CHI

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Why this pick?

Daniel Jones

FF projection: 14.7 FP +1.3vs ESPN
ESPN: 13.4 FP
Sleeper: 14.5 FP
FantasyPros: 15.1 FP

Daniel Jones faces DAL in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 8.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%.

Baker Mayfield

FF projection: 11.8 FP -0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 12.6 FP
Sleeper: 15.0 FP
FantasyPros: 14.7 FP

Baker Mayfield faces CHI in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 4.0 fantasy points.

Daniel Jones projects for 14.7 points in PPR scoring, 3.0 more than Baker Mayfield. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:14 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

19.123.4

FF MEAN

1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs ATLSun 9:30 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.4Sleeper 20.1FantasyPros 21.2
23.4Expected FP
2
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.2Sleeper 21.7FantasyPros 22.2
21.8Expected FP
3
Dak PrescottQB · DAL vs INDSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.1Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 20.1
21.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.