Should I start Eric Saubert or Jackson Hawes in Week 9 (2026, Half-PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Eric Saubert

+0.5 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Eric Saubert over Jackson Hawes for Week 9 Half-PPR: 1.1 projected points versus 0.6.

Eric Saubert: 0.7 FP recent scoring average.
Eric Saubert: 1.25% matchup lift against ARI.

Forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, 4:48 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Eric Saubert

TE · SEAStats & schedule

1.1FF projected

↑ +0.3 vs ESPN

vs ARI

Sun 4:25 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jackson Hawes

TE · BUFStats & schedule

0.6FF projected

↑ +0.2 vs ESPN

at MIN

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Eric Saubert

FF projection: 1.1 FP +0.3vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.8 FP
Sleeper: 1.3 FP
FantasyPros: 1.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.6 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Eric Saubert faces ARI in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.

Jackson Hawes

FF projection: 0.6 FP +0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 0.4 FP
Sleeper: 0.6 FP
FantasyPros: 0.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jackson Hawes faces MIN in Week 9. Recent scoring average: 0.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Eric Saubert projects for 1.1 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.5 more than Jackson Hawes. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 4:48 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

10.815.2

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs SFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.7Sleeper 15.2FantasyPros 14.1
15.2Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs LVSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 13.5Sleeper 12.7FantasyPros 13.5
14.4Expected FP
3
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs SEASun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.8Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 11.9
12.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.