Should I start Dallas Goedert or Pat Freiermuth? (Standard Week 18 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Dallas Goedert

The displayed FF scores are tied. Dallas Goedert gets the tiebreaker: FF is +1.2 FP versus ESPN, compared with -0.5 for Pat Freiermuth. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.

Dallas Goedert: 4.3 FP recent scoring average.
Pat Freiermuth: 5.8 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 6:48 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

5.0FF projected

↑ +1.2 vs ESPN

at NYG

Sun 12:00 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Pat Freiermuth

TE · PITStats & schedule

5.0FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

at BAL

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Why this pick?

Dallas Goedert

FF projection: 5.0 FP +1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.8 FP
Sleeper: 6.8 FP
FantasyPros: 4.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Dallas Goedert faces NYG in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 4.3 fantasy points.

Pat Freiermuth

FF projection: 5.0 FP -0.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.5 FP
Sleeper: 4.9 FP
FantasyPros: 3.7 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Pat Freiermuth faces BAL in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 5.8 fantasy points.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 6:48 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth?

Dallas Goedert holds a 0.0 FP projected edge over Pat Freiermuth. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper, FantasyPros lean toward Dallas Goedert, while ESPN, Boosted Trees lean toward Pat Freiermuth. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 5.0 FP forecast in Standard at NYG. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.3 FP, putting this forecast 0.7 points above that average.

Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth has a 5.0 FP forecast in Standard at BAL. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.8 FP, putting this forecast 0.8 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Pat Freiermuth	Projected edge
ESPN	3.8 FP	5.5 FP	Pat Freiermuth +1.7
Sleeper	6.8 FP	4.9 FP	Dallas Goedert +1.8
FantasyPros	4.6 FP	3.7 FP	Dallas Goedert +0.9
Boosted Trees	6.0 FP	6.4 FP	Pat Freiermuth +0.4

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 12:00 AM ET. Pat Freiermuth: Sun 12:00 AM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

7.511.5

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs KCSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 11.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.3Sleeper 11.1FantasyPros 9.4
11.5Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs ARISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 11.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.1Sleeper 11.3FantasyPros 10.5
11.1Expected FP
3
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs SFSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 7.5Sleeper 9.2FantasyPros 7.8
9.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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