Fortified Fantasy

Week 182026 ยท Standard

WEEK CHECK

Youโ€™re viewing Week 18.

The current week is Week 10. Want to make a decision for this week instead?

View Week 10

Should I start Bo Nix or Tyler Shough? (Standard Week 18 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Tyler Shough

The displayed FF scores are tied. Tyler Shough gets the tiebreaker: FF is +2.6 FP versus ESPN, compared with -2.2 for Bo Nix. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.

Tyler Shough ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked

Bo Nix ยท Injury report dated ยท Starter role checked

  • Tyler Shough: 16.8 FP recent scoring average.
  • Tyler Shough: 1.25% matchup reduction against TB.

Forecast updated ยท Standard

Tyler Shough
Why this pick?

Tyler Shough

FF projection
16.1 FP +2.6vs ESPN
ESPN
13.5 FP
Sleeper
14.2 FP
FantasyPros
18.5 FP
Boosted Trees
16.2 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Tyler Shough faces TB in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 16.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.

Bo Nix

FF projection
16.1 FP -2.2vs ESPN
ESPN
18.3 FP
Sleeper
17.1 FP
FantasyPros
15.6 FP
Boosted Trees
15.3 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Bo Nix faces LAC in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 20.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 3.75%.

The displayed FF scores are tied. Tyler Shough gets the tiebreaker: FF is +2.6 FP versus ESPN, compared with -2.2 for Bo Nix. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:10 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

FEATURED ยท YOUR NEXT MOVE

GamePlan.Fortify your season.Own the playoffs.

See your season unfold. Build stronger lineups, make smarter moves and plan your playoff push. Think weeks ahead while your league mates are still figuring out Sunday.

Build my GamePlan

Screenshots or SignUp

See an example GamePlan โ†—

YOUR PICKUP MAP EXAMPLE
Example free-agent list with highlighted pickup recommendations
#1 Week ยท #1 ROS ยท #1 Playoffs
#3 Playoffs
#3 Week
โ— Weekโ— ROSโ— PlayoffsFortifiedFantasy.com
Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
20.627.3
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Josh AllenQB ยท BUF vs NYJSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    25.4Expected FP
  2. 2
    Brock PurdyQB ยท SF vs ARISun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    24.4Expected FP
  3. 3
    Jayden DanielsQB ยท WAS vs DALSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
    23.5Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full QB rankings โ†—

More Week 18 decisions

Still deciding on Tyler Shough?

QB ยท Week 18
Tyler Shough16.1projected FP
Bryce Young19.0projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Tyler Shough16.1projected FP
Geno Smith16.0projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Tyler Shough16.1projected FP
Jared Goff16.8projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Tyler Shough16.1projected FP
Aaron Rodgers15.4projected FP
Compare the matchup

Other close calls

QB ยท Week 18
Josh Allen25.4projected FP
Brock Purdy24.4projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Brock Purdy24.4projected FP
Jayden Daniels23.5projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Jayden Daniels23.5projected FP
Jordan Love23.3projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Jordan Love23.3projected FP
Drake Maye23.0projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Drake Maye23.0projected FP
Trevor Lawrence22.4projected FP
Compare the matchup QB ยท Week 18
Trevor Lawrence22.4projected FP
Joe Burrow22.2projected FP
Compare the matchup
Compare other players Week 18

Compare these players rest of season โ†’