
Should I start Tim Patrick or Tyler Conklin? (PPR Week 18 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Tyler Conklin
FF and its comparable ESPN margin do not separate these players. Sleeper favors Tyler Conklin and supplies the secondary tiebreaker. This is a lineup preference, not a proven scoring advantage.
- Tyler Conklin: 8.75% matchup reduction against GB.
- Tim Patrick: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Tim Patrick
WR ยท NYJStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Tyler Conklin
- FF projection
- 0.1 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.1 FP
Tyler Conklin faces GB in Week 18. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.
Tim Patrick
- FF projection
- 0.1 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.1 FP
Tim Patrick faces BUF in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 26.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.9Sleeper 25.2FantasyPros 24.026.8Expected FP - 2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB ยท KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 26.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 29.7Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 21.726.5Expected FP - 3
Bijan RobinsonRB ยท ATL vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailableMean 24.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.3Sleeper 22.0FantasyPros 21.324.6Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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