Should I start Bauer Sharp or Tez Johnson in Week 18 (2026, Half-PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Start Tez Johnson

+4.1 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Tez Johnson over Bauer Sharp for Week 18 Half-PPR: 4.2 projected points versus 0.1.

Tez Johnson: 6.8 FP recent scoring average.
Bauer Sharp: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 9:52 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Tez Johnson

WR · TBStats & schedule

4.2FF projected

↓ -1.7 vs ESPN

at NO

Sun 12:00 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Bauer Sharp

TE · TBStats & schedule

0.1FF projected

at NO

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Why this pick?

Tez Johnson

FF projection: 4.2 FP -1.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.9 FP
Sleeper: 3.6 FP
FantasyPros: 2.5 FP

Tez Johnson faces NO in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 6.8 fantasy points.

Bauer Sharp

FF projection: 0.1 FP
Sleeper: 0.1 FP

Bauer Sharp faces NO in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 2.5%.

Tez Johnson projects for 4.2 points in half-PPR scoring, 4.1 more than Bauer Sharp. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 9:52 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

19.128.1

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 28.1Sleeper 21.5FantasyPros 20.3
25.0Expected FP
2
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.8Sleeper 22.8FantasyPros 22.1
24.2Expected FP
3
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 20.4FantasyPros 19.1
22.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.