Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Michael Mayer? (Half-PPR Week 18 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Aaron Jones Sr.

+1.1 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Michael Mayer for Week 18 Half-PPR: 7.4 projected points versus 6.4.

Aaron Jones Sr.: 3.6 FP recent scoring average.
Michael Mayer: 5.2 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 11:29 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

7.4FF projected

↓ -0.6 vs ESPN

vs CHI

Sun 12:00 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Michael Mayer

TE · LVStats & schedule

6.4FF projected

↑ +1.0 vs ESPN

at KC

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Why this pick?

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 7.4 FP -0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.0 FP
Sleeper: 9.4 FP
FantasyPros: 7.6 FP

Aaron Jones Sr. faces CHI in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 3.6 fantasy points.

Michael Mayer

FF projection: 6.4 FP +1.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 5.3 FP
Sleeper: 5.5 FP
FantasyPros: 7.2 FP

Michael Mayer faces KC in Week 18. Recent scoring average: 5.2 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 7.4 points in half-PPR scoring, 1.1 more than Michael Mayer. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 11:29 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Michael Mayer?

Aaron Jones Sr. holds a 1.1 FP projected edge over Michael Mayer. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros project Aaron Jones Sr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 7.4 FP forecast in Half-PPR against CHI. His recorded recent scoring average is 3.6 FP, putting this forecast 3.9 points above that average.

Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer has a 6.4 FP forecast in Half-PPR at KC. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.2 FP, putting this forecast 1.1 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 3.75%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Michael Mayer	Projected edge
ESPN	8.0 FP	5.3 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.7
Sleeper	9.4 FP	5.5 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +3.9
FantasyPros	7.6 FP	7.2 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +0.4

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 12:00 AM ET. Michael Mayer: Sun 12:00 AM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

19.128.1

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LVSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 28.1Sleeper 21.5FantasyPros 20.3
25.0Expected FP
2
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs GBSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.8Sleeper 22.8FantasyPros 22.1
24.2Expected FP
3
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs CARSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.4Sleeper 20.4FantasyPros 19.1
22.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 18