Should I start DeVonta Smith or Drew Ogletree in Week 17 (2026, Standard)?

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

DeVonta Smith: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

DeVonta Smith · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

DeVonta Smith: 6.25% matchup reduction against SF.
Drew Ogletree: 0.4 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 5:52 AM ET · Standard

CHECK AVAILABILITY

DeVonta Smith

WR · PHIStats & schedule

7.2FF projected

↓ -0.2 vs ESPN

at SF

Sun 8:20 PM ET

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Drew Ogletree

TE · INDStats & schedule

0.6FF projected

↓ -0.1 vs ESPN

at CLE

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

DeVonta Smith

FF projection: 7.2 FP -0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.4 FP
Sleeper: 8.0 FP
FantasyPros: 7.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

DeVonta Smith faces SF in Week 17. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%. DeVonta Smith is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Drew Ogletree

FF projection: 0.6 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 0.6 FP
Sleeper: 0.3 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Drew Ogletree faces CLE in Week 17. Recent scoring average: 0.4 fantasy points.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 5:52 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

First playerSecond player

Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

15.323.3

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.1Sleeper 22.1FantasyPros 18.3
20.4Expected FP
2
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 19.2Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 15.3
19.6Expected FP
3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LACSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.3Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 16.2
19.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.