Should I start Dallas Goedert or Pat Freiermuth? (Standard Week 17 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Pat Freiermuth

Week 17 · Standard

Pat Freiermuth has the higher current FF forecast: 5.5 FP versus 5.4 FP. The 0.1-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Pat Freiermuth: 5.8 FP recent scoring average.
Dallas Goedert: 4.3 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 4:26 AM ET · Standard

THE ALTERNATIVE

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

5.4FF projected

↑ +1.6 vs ESPN

at SF

Sun 8:20 PM ET

FF PICK

Pat Freiermuth

TE · PITStats & schedule

5.5FF projected

↓ -0.4 vs ESPN

at TEN

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth?

Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth are separated by 0.1 projected FP. That margin is too small to treat the FF order as a decisive advantage. The FF pick above follows the same expected-points and displayed-tie policy as Fortified Rankings; the saved source comparison below provides supporting context.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper, FantasyPros lean toward Dallas Goedert, while ESPN, Boosted Trees lean toward Pat Freiermuth. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 5.4 FP forecast in Standard at SF. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.3 FP, putting this forecast 1.1 points above that average.

Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth has a 5.5 FP forecast in Standard at TEN. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.8 FP, putting this forecast 0.3 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Dallas Goedert	Pat Freiermuth	Projected edge
ESPN	3.8 FP	5.8 FP	Pat Freiermuth +2.1
Sleeper	6.4 FP	5.2 FP	Dallas Goedert +1.3
FantasyPros	6.3 FP	4.9 FP	Dallas Goedert +1.5
Boosted Trees	5.4 FP	5.7 FP	Pat Freiermuth +0.3

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Dallas Goedert: Sun 8:20 PM ET. Pat Freiermuth: Sun 1:00 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

Tap a player for alternatives, or search a name.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

7.113.3

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs ARISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.1Sleeper 13.3FantasyPros 9.9
12.8Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs LVSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 10.2Sleeper 10.6FantasyPros 8.0
10.6Expected FP
3
Colston LovelandTE · CHI vs DETSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 7.6Sleeper 7.1FantasyPros 9.4
9.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

More decisions involving your players

Compare another option for the same lineup decision. These are Start/Sit decisions for players you already own. Availability and scoring can change the call.

Flex · Week 17