
Should I start KeAndre Lambert-Smith or Tanner Koziol? (PPR Week 17 2026)
THE FF CALL
Slight lean: Tanner Koziol
Week 17 ยท PPR
Tanner Koziol has the higher current FF forecast: 1.6 FP versus 1.2 FP. The 0.4-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.
- Tanner Koziol: 2.6 FP recent scoring average.
- Tanner Koziol: 8.75% matchup lift against WAS.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Tanner Koziol
TE ยท JACStats & schedule โบKeAndre Lambert-Smith
- Recent scoring average: 3.0 FP.
- The KC defensive matchup changes the FF estimate down 10%.
- Last 2 recorded games: 4.5 targets per game.
Tanner Koziol
- Recent scoring average: 2.6 FP.
- The WAS defensive matchup changes the FF estimate up 8.75%.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
- FF projection
- 1.2 FP +0.8vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 0.4 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.7 FP
KeAndre Lambert-Smith faces KC in Week 17. Recent scoring average: 3.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.
Tanner Koziol
- FF projection
- 1.6 FP
- Sleeper
- 1.4 FP
Tanner Koziol faces WAS in Week 17. Recent scoring average: 2.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%.
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs CHISun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.4Sleeper 27.1FantasyPros 22.124.6Expected FP - 2
Bijan RobinsonRB ยท ATL vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 23.8Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.8Sleeper 22.1FantasyPros 19.723.8Expected FP - 3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR ยท CIN vs BALThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.2Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 24.2Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 21.222.2Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
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