Should I start Tommy DeVito or Trevor Lawrence in Week 16 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Start Trevor Lawrence

Tommy DeVito is not the current starting quarterback. Trevor Lawrence is the usable option, with 23.2 projected points. Confirm active status before kickoff.

Trevor Lawrence · Injury report dated Nov 6, 2026, 12:09 AM ET · Starter role checked Nov 11, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Tommy DeVito · Starter role checked Nov 11, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Trevor Lawrence: 16.5 FP recent scoring average.
Trevor Lawrence: 7.5% matchup lift against DAL.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 5:30 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JACStats & schedule

23.2FF projected

↑ +2.6 vs ESPN

at DAL

Sun 8:20 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tommy DeVito

QB · NEStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

at NYJ

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Trevor Lawrence

FF projection: 23.2 FP +2.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 20.6 FP
Sleeper: 22.6 FP
FantasyPros: 21.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 23.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Trevor Lawrence faces DAL in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 16.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Tommy DeVito

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

Tommy DeVito faces NYJ in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 0.8 fantasy points. NOT_STARTING

Tommy DeVito is not the current starting quarterback. Trevor Lawrence is the usable option, with 23.2 projected points. Confirm active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

20.626.5

FF MEAN

1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 26.5Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.2Sleeper 23.0FantasyPros 21.4
26.5Expected FP
2
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.6Sleeper 22.6FantasyPros 21.6
23.2Expected FP
3
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs DENFri 4:30 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.8Sleeper 25.0FantasyPros 21.7
22.9Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.