Should I start Ja'Marr Chase or Tim Patrick in Week 16 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Start Ja'Marr Chase

+14.5 projected edge · Standard

Start Ja'Marr Chase over Tim Patrick for Week 16 Standard: 14.6 projected points versus 0.1.

Ja'Marr Chase: 17.9 FP recent scoring average.
Tim Patrick: 0.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 9:51 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · CINStats & schedule

14.6FF projected

↓ -1.7 vs ESPN

at IND

Sun 12:00 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Tim Patrick

WR · NYJStats & schedule

0.1FF projected

vs NE

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Ja'Marr Chase

FF projection: 14.6 FP -1.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 16.3 FP
Sleeper: 13.2 FP
FantasyPros: 13.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 14.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Ja'Marr Chase faces IND in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 17.9 fantasy points.

Tim Patrick

FF projection: 0.1 FP
Sleeper: 0.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Tim Patrick faces NE in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Ja'Marr Chase projects for 14.6 points in standard scoring, 14.5 more than Tim Patrick. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 9:51 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

11.416.6

FF MEAN

1
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 16.3Sleeper 13.2FantasyPros 13.2
14.6Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs LARFri 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.0Sleeper 16.6FantasyPros 13.2
14.3Expected FP
3
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.4Sleeper 11.6FantasyPros 11.6
13.7Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.