Should I start Drew Sample or Jackson Hawes in Week 16 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Drew Sample

+0.7 projected edge · Standard

Start Drew Sample over Jackson Hawes for Week 16 Standard: 1.4 projected points versus 0.8.

Drew Sample: 2.8 FP recent scoring average.
Jackson Hawes: 0.8 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 9:24 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Drew Sample

TE · CINStats & schedule

1.4FF projected

↑ +0.3 vs ESPN

at IND

Sun 12:00 AM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jackson Hawes

TE · BUFStats & schedule

0.8FF projected

↓ -0.1 vs ESPN

at DEN

Fri 4:30 PM ET

Why this pick?

Drew Sample

FF projection: 1.4 FP +0.3vs ESPN
ESPN: 1.1 FP
Sleeper: 1.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 2.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Drew Sample faces IND in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 2.8 fantasy points.

Jackson Hawes

FF projection: 0.8 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 0.8 FP
Sleeper: 0.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Jackson Hawes faces DEN in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 0.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%.

Drew Sample projects for 1.4 points in standard scoring, 0.7 more than Jackson Hawes. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 9:24 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

7.613.3

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.7Sleeper 13.3FantasyPros 8.8
12.2Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 8.8Sleeper 10.5FantasyPros 7.6
9.9Expected FP
3
George KittleTE · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.1Sleeper 9.7FantasyPros 9.7
9.9Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.