Should I start Andy Dalton or Case Keenum in Week 16 (2026, PPR)?

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Andy Dalton: Michael Penix Jr. is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. Case Keenum: Caleb Williams is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Andy Dalton · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 3:54 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 11, 2026, 2:05 PM ET

Case Keenum · Injury report dated Nov 8, 2026, 7:04 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 11, 2026, 2:05 PM ET

Andy Dalton: 1.25% matchup reduction against TB.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 2:00 PM ET · PPR

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Andy Dalton

QB · ATLStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

vs TB

Sun 12:00 AM ET

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Case Keenum

QB · CHIStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

vs GB

Fri 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Andy Dalton

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

Andy Dalton faces TB in Week 16. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%. NOT_STARTING

Case Keenum

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
FantasyPros: 0.0 FP

Case Keenum faces GB in Week 16. NOT_STARTING

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 2:00 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

20.626.9

FF MEAN

1
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs INDSun 12:00 AM ETRange unavailable
Mean 26.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.2Sleeper 23.0FantasyPros 21.4
26.9Expected FP
2
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs DALSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.6Sleeper 22.6FantasyPros 21.6
23.2Expected FP
3
Drake MayeQB · NE vs NYJSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 24.2Sleeper 21.9FantasyPros 21.9
23.0Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.