Should I start Eli Stowers or Gavin Bartholomew? (Half-PPR Week 16 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Eli Stowers

The displayed FF scores are tied. Eli Stowers is the default preference because ESPN has a comparable saved forecast for him and not for Gavin Bartholomew. Missing data is not zero, and this coverage fallback is not a statistical edge.

Eli Stowers: 2.3 FP recent scoring average.
Eli Stowers: 6.25% matchup reduction against HOU.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Eli Stowers

TE · PHIStats & schedule

1.7FF projected

↑ +0.6 vs ESPN

vs HOU

Thu 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Gavin Bartholomew

TE · MINStats & schedule

1.7FF projected

vs WAS

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Why this pick?

Eli Stowers

FF projection: 1.7 FP +0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 1.1 FP
Sleeper: 2.1 FP
FantasyPros: 2.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Eli Stowers faces HOU in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 2.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%.

Gavin Bartholomew

FF projection: 1.7 FP
Sleeper: 1.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Gavin Bartholomew faces WAS in Week 16. Recent scoring average: 0.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 8.75%.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

11.016.9

FF MEAN

1
Brock BowersTE · LV vs TENSun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.6Sleeper 16.9FantasyPros 11.9
15.4Expected FP
2
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.7Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.3Sleeper 14.3FantasyPros 11.0
13.7Expected FP
3
George KittleTE · SF vs KCSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.7Sleeper 12.2FantasyPros 12.4
13.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.