Should I start Cyrus Allen or Efton Chism III? (Standard Week 15 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Efton Chism III

The displayed FF scores are tied. Efton Chism III is the default preference because ESPN has a comparable saved forecast for him and not for Cyrus Allen. Missing data is not zero, and this coverage fallback is not a statistical edge.

Efton Chism III: 4.7 FP recent scoring average.
Efton Chism III: 10% matchup reduction against KC.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:58 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Efton Chism III

WR · NEStats & schedule

2.2FF projected

↑ +1.2 vs ESPN

at KC

Mon 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Cyrus Allen

WR · KCStats & schedule

2.2FF projected

vs NE

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Efton Chism III

FF projection: 2.2 FP +1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 1.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.4 FP
FantasyPros: 2.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.5 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Efton Chism III faces KC in Week 15. Recent scoring average: 4.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Cyrus Allen

FF projection: 2.2 FP
Sleeper: 1.0 FP
FantasyPros: 2.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 0.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Cyrus Allen faces NE in Week 15. Recent scoring average: 1.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 2:58 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

WR. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

11.817.2

FF MEAN

1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs PHISat 5:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 15.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 13.3Sleeper 17.2FantasyPros 11.9
15.1Expected FP
2
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs CARSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 14.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.9Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 12.2
14.0Expected FP
3
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs LARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 13.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.0Sleeper 12.0FantasyPros 12.6
13.0Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.