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Week 152026 ยท Half-PPR

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Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Antonio Williams? (Half-PPR Week 15 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Antonio Williams

+0.7 projected edge ยท Half-PPR

Start Antonio Williams over Aaron Jones Sr. for Week 15 Half-PPR: 7.7 projected points versus 7.0.

  • Antonio Williams: 6.0 FP recent scoring average.
  • Aaron Jones Sr.: 3.6 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR

Antonio Williams
Why this pick?

Antonio Williams

FF projection
7.7 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN
7.3 FP
Sleeper
5.9 FP
FantasyPros
9.1 FP
Boosted Trees
6.5 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Antonio Williams faces ATL in Week 15. Recent scoring average: 6.0 fantasy points.

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection
7.0 FP -1.2vs ESPN
ESPN
8.2 FP
Sleeper
9.5 FP
FantasyPros
7.6 FP
Boosted Trees
10.5 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Aaron Jones Sr. faces DET in Week 15. Recent scoring average: 3.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 8.75%.

Antonio Williams projects for 7.7 points in half-PPR scoring, 0.7 more than Aaron Jones Sr.. The gap is small; late injury news or your leagueโ€™s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 6:17 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Antonio Williams?

Antonio Williams holds a 0.7 FP projected edge over Aaron Jones Sr.. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: ESPN, Sleeper, Boosted Trees lean toward Aaron Jones Sr., while FantasyPros leans toward Antonio Williams. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 7.0 FP forecast in Half-PPR against DET. His recorded recent scoring average is 3.6 FP, putting this forecast 3.4 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 8.75%; it is already included in the projection.

Antonio Williams

Antonio Williams has a 7.7 FP forecast in Half-PPR against ATL. His recorded recent scoring average is 6.0 FP, putting this forecast 1.7 points above that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side
SourceAaron Jones Sr.Antonio WilliamsProjected edge
ESPN8.2 FP7.3 FPAaron Jones Sr. +0.9
Sleeper9.5 FP5.9 FPAaron Jones Sr. +3.6
FantasyPros7.6 FP9.1 FPAntonio Williams +1.5
Boosted Trees10.5 FP6.5 FPAaron Jones Sr. +4.0

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 8:20 PM ET. Antonio Williams: Sun 1:00 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your leagueโ€™s actual playoff weeks, build your ROS Report โ†—.

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YOUR PICKUP MAP EXAMPLE
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#1 Week ยท #1 ROS ยท #1 Playoffs
#3 Playoffs
#3 Week
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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
15.421.9
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs MINSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.9Expected FP
  2. 2
    Bucky IrvingRB ยท TB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    19.6Expected FP
  3. 3
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR ยท SEA vs PHISat 5:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.9Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full FLEX rankings โ†—

YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK

More decisions involving your players

Compare another option for the same lineup decision. These are Start/Sit decisions for players you already own. Availability and scoring can change the call.

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