Should I start Gunnar Helm or Lan Larison? (Standard Week 14 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Gunnar Helm

+3.7 projected edge · Standard

Start Gunnar Helm over Lan Larison for Week 14 Standard: 4.1 projected points versus 0.4.

Gunnar Helm: 6.0 FP recent scoring average.
Gunnar Helm: 10% matchup lift against DET.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 5:23 PM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Gunnar Helm

TE · TENStats & schedule

4.1FF projected

↑ +0.8 vs ESPN

at DET

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Lan Larison

RB · NEStats & schedule

0.4FF projected

vs MIN

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Gunnar Helm

FF projection: 4.1 FP +0.8vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.3 FP
Sleeper: 3.1 FP
FantasyPros: 3.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Gunnar Helm faces DET in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 6.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Lan Larison

FF projection: 0.4 FP
Sleeper: 0.4 FP

Lan Larison faces MIN in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 0.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.

Gunnar Helm projects for 4.1 points in standard scoring, 3.7 more than Lan Larison. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 5:23 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.522.7

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.7Sleeper 22.0FantasyPros 18.1
21.4Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs CINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.6Sleeper 20.1FantasyPros 16.5
19.4Expected FP
3
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.8Sleeper 16.7FantasyPros 16.6
17.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.