Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Pat Freiermuth? (Standard Week 14 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Aaron Jones Sr.

+1.0 projected edge · Standard

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Pat Freiermuth for Week 14 Standard: 5.9 projected points versus 4.9.

Aaron Jones Sr.: 2.9 FP recent scoring average.
Pat Freiermuth: 5.8 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:21 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MINStats & schedule

5.9FF projected

↓ -1.0 vs ESPN

at NE

Thu 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Pat Freiermuth

TE · PITStats & schedule

4.9FF projected

↑ +0.4 vs ESPN

at JAC

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection: 5.9 FP -1.0vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.9 FP
Sleeper: 7.7 FP
FantasyPros: 5.2 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.2 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Aaron Jones Sr. faces NE in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 2.9 fantasy points.

Pat Freiermuth

FF projection: 4.9 FP +0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 4.5 FP
Sleeper: 6.1 FP
FantasyPros: 3.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Pat Freiermuth faces JAC in Week 14. Recent scoring average: 5.8 fantasy points.

Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 5.9 points in standard scoring, 1.0 more than Pat Freiermuth. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:21 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Pat Freiermuth?

Aaron Jones Sr. holds a 1.0 FP projected edge over Pat Freiermuth. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Aaron Jones Sr. higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 5.9 FP forecast in Standard at NE. His recorded recent scoring average is 2.9 FP, putting this forecast 3.0 points above that average.

Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth has a 4.9 FP forecast in Standard at JAC. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.8 FP, putting this forecast 0.9 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Aaron Jones Sr.	Pat Freiermuth	Projected edge
ESPN	6.9 FP	4.5 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +2.4
Sleeper	7.7 FP	6.1 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +1.7
FantasyPros	5.2 FP	3.8 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +1.5
Boosted Trees	7.2 FP	6.1 FP	Aaron Jones Sr. +1.0

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Thu 8:15 PM ET. Pat Freiermuth: Mon 8:15 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

16.522.7

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.7Sleeper 22.0FantasyPros 18.1
21.4Expected FP
2
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs CINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.6Sleeper 19.4FantasyPros 16.5
19.2Expected FP
3
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 17.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.8Sleeper 16.7FantasyPros 16.6
17.6Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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RB · Week 14