FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
RB · Week 13 · Standard
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
RB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
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Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 21.0Sleeper 20.8FantasyPros 19.221.3Expected FP - 2
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.7Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 14.116.4Expected FP - 3
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs LARThu 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.4Sleeper 15.6FantasyPros 16.916.4Expected FP - 4
Bucky IrvingRB · TB vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.6Sleeper 15.1FantasyPros 11.516.1Expected FP - 5
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 16.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.6Sleeper 18.4FantasyPros 14.616.0Expected FP - 6
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs WASSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.3Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.7Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 12.815.3Expected FP - 7
James Cook IIIRB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 15.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 16.6Sleeper 14.8FantasyPros 13.115.0Expected FP - 8
Bhayshul TutenRB · JAC vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailableMean 13.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 12.7Sleeper 13.9FantasyPros 11.713.6Expected FP - 9
Chuba HubbardRB · CAR vs MINSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.4Sleeper 13.3FantasyPros 12.813.1Expected FP - 10
Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT vs HOUSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 13.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 13.1Sleeper 11.8FantasyPros 11.413.0Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
