FORTIFIED FANTASY · YOUR OPTIONS, IN ORDER
Fortified Rankings.
QB · Week 13 · Standard
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ·
QB. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 22.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 23.0Sleeper 24.0FantasyPros 21.022.9Expected FP - 2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.6Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 17.721.9Expected FP - 3
Drake MayeQB · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.5Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.3Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.721.5Expected FP - 4
Brock PurdyQB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.1Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.8Sleeper 21.7FantasyPros 20.721.1Expected FP - 5
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.0Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 20.720.9Expected FP - 6
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAC vs CHISun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.7Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 18.4Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 18.720.7Expected FP - 7
Jordan LoveQB · GB vs NOSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 20.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.3Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 19.320.6Expected FP - 8
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL vs DETSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.3Sleeper 17.0FantasyPros 20.518.6Expected FP - 9
Bo NixQB · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailableMean 18.0Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 17.6Sleeper 18.8FantasyPros 18.118.0Expected FP - 10
C.J. StroudQB · HOU vs PITSun 8:20 PM ETRange unavailableMean 17.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 15.7Sleeper 17.1FantasyPros 17.617.9Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
