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Week 132026 ยท Standard

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Should I start Kyle Pitts Sr. or Michael Wilson in Week 13 (2026, Standard)?

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Michael Wilson: Confirmed unavailable; do not make a normal active-player recommendation. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Michael Wilson ยท Injury report dated

  • Kyle Pitts Sr.: 3.7 FP recent scoring average.
  • Kyle Pitts Sr.: 10% matchup lift against DET.

Forecast updated ยท Standard

Why this pick?

Kyle Pitts Sr.

FF projection
6.8 FP +0.6vs ESPN
ESPN
6.2 FP
Sleeper
5.7 FP
FantasyPros
7.3 FP
Boosted Trees
7.8 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Kyle Pitts Sr. faces DET in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 3.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Michael Wilson

FF projection
0.0 FP
Sleeper
0.0 FP
Boosted Trees
8.2 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Michael Wilson faces PHI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 10.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 7.5%. IR

Michael Wilson: Confirmed unavailable; do not make a normal active-player recommendation. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 1:56 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Kyle Pitts Sr. and Michael Wilson?

Use the game-status and availability guidance above before changing your lineup. A saved pregame estimate cannot undo a lineup lock or establish that a player is active.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper leans toward Kyle Pitts Sr., while Boosted Trees leans toward Michael Wilson. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Kyle Pitts Sr. has a 6.8 FP forecast in Standard against DET. His recorded recent scoring average is 3.7 FP, putting this forecast 3.1 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson has a 0.0 FP forecast in Standard against PHI. His recorded recent scoring average is 10.5 FP, putting this forecast 10.5 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 7.5%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side
SourceKyle Pitts Sr.Michael WilsonProjected edge
Sleeper5.7 FP0.0 FPKyle Pitts Sr. +5.7
Boosted Trees7.8 FP8.2 FPMichael Wilson +0.4

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Kyle Pitts Sr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Michael Wilson: Sun 4:05 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your leagueโ€™s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan โ†—.

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YOUR PICKUP MAP EXAMPLE
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#1 Week ยท #1 ROS ยท #1 Playoffs
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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
14.121.3
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    21.3Expected FP
  2. 2
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR ยท SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.6Expected FP
  3. 3
    Christian McCaffreyRB ยท SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    16.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full FLEX rankings โ†—

YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK

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