Should I start Keaton Mitchell or Payne Durham in Week 13 (2026, Standard)?

THE FF CALL

Start Keaton Mitchell

+2.6 projected edge · Standard

Start Keaton Mitchell over Payne Durham for Week 13 Standard: 2.9 projected points versus 0.3.

Keaton Mitchell: 3.5 FP recent scoring average.
Keaton Mitchell: 10% matchup reduction against TB.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 11:30 AM ET · Standard

FF PICK

Keaton Mitchell

RB · LACStats & schedule

2.9FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

at TB

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Payne Durham

TE · TBStats & schedule

0.3FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

vs LAC

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Keaton Mitchell

FF projection: 2.9 FP -0.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 3.4 FP
Sleeper: 3.5 FP
FantasyPros: 3.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.1 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Keaton Mitchell faces TB in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 3.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Payne Durham

FF projection: 0.3 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 0.3 FP
Sleeper: 0.1 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.0 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET

Payne Durham faces LAC in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 0.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%.

Keaton Mitchell projects for 2.9 points in standard scoring, 2.6 more than Payne Durham. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 11:30 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

14.121.3

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 21.0Sleeper 20.8FantasyPros 19.2
21.3Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 14.5Sleeper 18.5FantasyPros 14.7
16.6Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 16.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 15.7Sleeper 18.9FantasyPros 14.1
16.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.