Should I start Chicago Bears or Miami Dolphins? (Standard Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Miami Dolphins

Week 13 · Standard

Miami Dolphins has the higher current FF forecast: 4.2 FP versus 4.1 FP. The 0.1-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Miami Dolphins: 3 external sources project points.
Chicago Bears: 7.5% matchup reduction against JAC.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET · Standard

THE ALTERNATIVE

Chicago Bears

DST · CHIStats & schedule

4.1FF projected

↓ -0.7 vs ESPN

vs JAC

Sun 1:00 PM ET

FF PICK

Miami Dolphins

DST · MIAStats & schedule

4.2FF projected

↓ -0.1 vs ESPN

at DEN

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

D/ST. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

6.312.4

FF MEAN

1
Denver BroncosD/ST · DEN vs MIASun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.8Sleeper 9.1FantasyPros 7.0
9.4Expected FP
2
Tampa Bay BuccaneersD/ST · TB vs LACSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 9.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 12.4Sleeper 6.5FantasyPros 7.1
9.4Expected FP
3
Minnesota VikingsD/ST · MIN vs CARSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 7.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 7.8Sleeper 6.3FantasyPros 7.8
7.3Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.