Should I start Omarion Hampton or Pat Freiermuth? (PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Pat Freiermuth

+0.7 projected edge · PPR

Start Pat Freiermuth over Omarion Hampton for Week 13 PPR: 7.9 projected points versus 7.2.

Pat Freiermuth: 7.8 FP recent scoring average.
Pat Freiermuth: 6.25% matchup reduction against HOU.

Forecast updated Nov 12, 2026, 9:33 AM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Pat Freiermuth

TE · PITStats & schedule

7.9FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

vs HOU

Sun 8:20 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Omarion Hampton

RB · LACStats & schedule

7.2FF projected

↑ +1.0 vs ESPN

at TB

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Pat Freiermuth

FF projection: 7.9 FP -0.5vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.4 FP
Sleeper: 9.8 FP
FantasyPros: 7.0 FP

Pat Freiermuth faces HOU in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 7.8 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%.

Omarion Hampton

FF projection: 7.2 FP +1.1vs ESPN
ESPN: 6.1 FP
Sleeper: 8.9 FP
FantasyPros: 8.7 FP

Omarion Hampton faces TB in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 5.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Pat Freiermuth projects for 7.9 points in PPR scoring, 0.7 more than Omarion Hampton. The gap is small; late injury news or your league’s scoring can change the choice.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 9:33 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Omarion Hampton and Pat Freiermuth?

Pat Freiermuth holds a 0.7 FP projected edge over Omarion Hampton. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: FantasyPros leans toward Omarion Hampton, while ESPN, Sleeper lean toward Pat Freiermuth. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton has a 7.2 FP forecast in PPR at TB. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.3 FP, putting this forecast 1.8 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth has a 7.9 FP forecast in PPR against HOU. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.8 FP. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 6.25%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Omarion Hampton	Pat Freiermuth	Projected edge
ESPN	6.1 FP	8.4 FP	Pat Freiermuth +2.2
Sleeper	8.9 FP	9.8 FP	Pat Freiermuth +0.9
FantasyPros	8.7 FP	7.0 FP	Omarion Hampton +1.7

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Omarion Hampton: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Pat Freiermuth: Sun 8:20 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

18.026.3

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 25.3Sleeper 25.9FantasyPros 23.1
25.9Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.0Sleeper 26.3FantasyPros 22.7
24.6Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.8Sleeper 18.0FantasyPros 19.1
21.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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RB · Week 13