Should I start Lan Larison or Mitchell Evans in Week 13 (2026, PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Start Mitchell Evans

+1.9 projected edge · PPR

Start Mitchell Evans over Lan Larison for Week 13 PPR: 2.5 projected points versus 0.6.

Mitchell Evans: 4.7 FP recent scoring average.
Mitchell Evans: 10% matchup reduction against MIN.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 1:27 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Mitchell Evans

TE · CARStats & schedule

2.5FF projected

↓ -0.2 vs ESPN

at MIN

Sun 4:25 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Lan Larison

RB · NEStats & schedule

0.6FF projected

vs BUF

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Why this pick?

Mitchell Evans

FF projection: 2.5 FP -0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 2.7 FP
Sleeper: 1.2 FP
FantasyPros: 2.4 FP

Mitchell Evans faces MIN in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 4.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 10%.

Lan Larison

FF projection: 0.6 FP
Sleeper: 0.5 FP

Lan Larison faces BUF in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 0.5 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%.

Mitchell Evans projects for 2.5 points in PPR scoring, 1.9 more than Lan Larison. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 1:27 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

18.026.3

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 25.3Sleeper 25.9FantasyPros 23.1
25.9Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.0Sleeper 26.3FantasyPros 22.7
24.6Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.8Sleeper 18.0FantasyPros 19.1
21.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.