Should I start Jaylen Waddle or Jonah Coleman? (PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Jonah Coleman

+2.4 projected edge · PPR

Start Jonah Coleman over Jaylen Waddle for Week 13 PPR: 14.6 projected points versus 12.1.

Jaylen Waddle: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Jaylen Waddle · Injury report dated Nov 8, 2026, 2:52 PM ET

Jonah Coleman: 16.0 FP recent scoring average.
Jaylen Waddle: 9.0 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 14, 2026, 1:02 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Jonah Coleman

RB · DENStats & schedule

14.6FF projected

↓ -2.6 vs ESPN

vs MIA

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jaylen Waddle

WR · DENStats & schedule

12.1FF projected

↓ -0.5 vs ESPN

vs MIA

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Why this pick?

Jonah Coleman

FF projection: 14.6 FP -2.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 17.2 FP
Sleeper: 11.8 FP
FantasyPros: 14.9 FP

Jonah Coleman faces MIA in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 16.0 fantasy points.

Jaylen Waddle

FF projection: 12.1 FP -0.6vs ESPN
ESPN: 12.7 FP
Sleeper: 14.4 FP
FantasyPros: 12.0 FP

Jaylen Waddle faces MIA in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 9.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%. Jaylen Waddle is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Jonah Coleman projects for 14.6 points, 2.4 more than Jaylen Waddle.

Updated Nov 14, 2026, 1:02 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Jaylen Waddle and Jonah Coleman?

Jonah Coleman holds a 2.4 FP projected edge over Jaylen Waddle. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper leans toward Jaylen Waddle, while ESPN, FantasyPros lean toward Jonah Coleman. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle has a 12.1 FP forecast in PPR against MIA. His recorded recent scoring average is 9.0 FP, putting this forecast 3.2 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 5%; it is already included in the projection. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Jonah Coleman

Jonah Coleman has a 14.6 FP forecast in PPR against MIA. His recorded recent scoring average is 16.0 FP, putting this forecast 1.5 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Jaylen Waddle	Jonah Coleman	Projected edge
ESPN	12.7 FP	17.2 FP	Jonah Coleman +4.6
Sleeper	14.4 FP	11.8 FP	Jaylen Waddle +2.6
FantasyPros	12.0 FP	14.9 FP	Jonah Coleman +2.9

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Jaylen Waddle: Sun 4:05 PM ET. Jonah Coleman: Sun 4:05 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

20.026.3

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 25.3Sleeper 25.9FantasyPros 23.1
25.9Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.0Sleeper 26.3FantasyPros 22.7
24.6Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.0Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 20.0
21.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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WR · Week 13