Should I start J.J. McCarthy or Sam Ehlinger? (PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start J.J. McCarthy

Sam Ehlinger is not the current starting quarterback. J.J. McCarthy is the usable option, with 13.8 projected points. Confirm active status before kickoff.

J.J. McCarthy · Injury report dated Nov 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ET · Starter role checked Nov 13, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Sam Ehlinger · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 4:04 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 13, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

J.J. McCarthy: 8.7 FP recent scoring average.
J.J. McCarthy: 2.5% matchup reduction against SF.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 6:09 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

J.J. McCarthy

QB · NYGStats & schedule

13.8FF projected

↓ -0.2 vs ESPN

vs SF

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Sam Ehlinger

QB · DENStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

vs MIA

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Why this pick?

J.J. McCarthy

FF projection: 13.8 FP -0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 14.0 FP
Sleeper: 12.7 FP
FantasyPros: 17.0 FP

J.J. McCarthy faces SF in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 8.7 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.

Sam Ehlinger

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

Sam Ehlinger faces MIA in Week 13. NOT_STARTING

Sam Ehlinger is not the current starting quarterback. J.J. McCarthy is the usable option, with 13.8 projected points. Confirm active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 6:09 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.724.0

FF MEAN

1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.0Sleeper 24.0FantasyPros 21.0
22.9Expected FP
2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.6Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 17.7
22.2Expected FP
3
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.0Sleeper 20.0FantasyPros 20.7
21.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.