
Should I start Ian Thomas or Xavier Worthy? (PPR Week 13 2026)
THE FF CALL
Start Xavier Worthy
Ian Thomas is on bye in Week 13 and projects for 0.0 FP. Xavier Worthy has a scheduled game and projects for 8.4 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.
- Xavier Worthy: 6.4 FP recent scoring average.
- Xavier Worthy: 1.25% matchup reduction against LAR.
Forecast updated ยท PPR



Ian Thomas
TE ยท LVStats & schedule โบWhy this pick?
Xavier Worthy
- FF projection
- 8.4 FP +0.6vs ESPN
- ESPN
- 7.8 FP
- Sleeper
- 5.9 FP
- FantasyPros
- 10.1 FP
Xavier Worthy faces LAR in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 6.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 1.25%.
Ian Thomas
- FF projection
- 0.0 FP
- Sleeper
- 0.0 FP
Recent scoring average: 0.6 fantasy points. BYE
Your next decision
Scoring & lineup notes
FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท
FLEX. The bigger picture.
Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.
- 1
Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 25.9Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 25.3Sleeper 25.9FantasyPros 23.125.9Expected FP - 2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR ยท SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailableMean 24.6Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 22.0Sleeper 26.3FantasyPros 22.724.6Expected FP - 3
Christian McCaffreyRB ยท SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailableMean 21.4Range unavailableMedian unavailableESPN 20.0Sleeper 22.9FantasyPros 20.021.4Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work
FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.
Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โP90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.
Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.
YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK
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