Should I start Case Keenum or Sam Ehlinger in Week 13 (2026, PPR)?

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Case Keenum: Caleb Williams is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. Sam Ehlinger: Bo Nix is listed ahead of him as the starting quarterback. Do not use an old starting projection to set your lineup. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Case Keenum · Injury report dated Nov 8, 2026, 7:04 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 11, 2026, 7:06 AM ET

Sam Ehlinger · Injury report dated Nov 9, 2026, 4:04 PM ET · Starter role checked Nov 11, 2026, 7:06 AM ET

Case Keenum: 6.25% matchup reduction against JAC.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 6:51 AM ET · PPR

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Case Keenum

QB · CHIStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

vs JAC

Sun 1:00 PM ET

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Sam Ehlinger

QB · DENStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

vs MIA

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Why this pick?

Case Keenum

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP
FantasyPros: 0.0 FP

Case Keenum faces JAC in Week 13. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 6.25%. NOT_STARTING

Sam Ehlinger

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

Sam Ehlinger faces MIA in Week 13. NOT_STARTING

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 6:51 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

QB. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.727.1

FF MEAN

1
Josh AllenQB · BUF vs NESun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.0Sleeper 27.1FantasyPros 21.0
23.8Expected FP
2
Joe BurrowQB · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 22.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 20.6Sleeper 19.2FantasyPros 17.7
22.2Expected FP
3
Drake MayeQB · NE vs BUFSun 4:25 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.3Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 19.8
21.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.