Should I start Blake Corum or Dallas Goedert? (PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Dallas Goedert

The displayed FF scores are tied. Dallas Goedert gets the tiebreaker: FF is +2.8 FP versus ESPN, compared with +1.7 for Blake Corum. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN.

Dallas Goedert: 9.0 FP recent scoring average.
Dallas Goedert: 1.25% matchup lift against ARI.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 11:27 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Dallas Goedert

TE · PHIStats & schedule

11.2FF projected

↑ +2.8 vs ESPN

at ARI

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Blake Corum

RB · LARStats & schedule

11.2FF projected

↑ +1.7 vs ESPN

vs KC

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Why this pick?

Dallas Goedert

FF projection: 11.2 FP +2.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.3 FP
Sleeper: 11.4 FP
FantasyPros: 13.6 FP

Dallas Goedert faces ARI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 9.0 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 1.25%.

Blake Corum

FF projection: 11.2 FP +1.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 9.5 FP
Sleeper: 9.3 FP
FantasyPros: 12.5 FP

Blake Corum faces KC in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 14.1 fantasy points.

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 11:27 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Blake Corum and Dallas Goedert?

Blake Corum holds a 0.0 FP projected edge over Dallas Goedert. The headline recommendation above also accounts for availability; the raw FF order alone is not the full call.

The available estimates disagree: ESPN leans toward Blake Corum, while Sleeper, FantasyPros lean toward Dallas Goedert. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Blake Corum

Blake Corum has a 11.2 FP forecast in PPR against KC. His recorded recent scoring average is 14.1 FP, putting this forecast 2.9 points below that average.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert has a 11.2 FP forecast in PPR at ARI. His recorded recent scoring average is 9.0 FP, putting this forecast 2.2 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 1.25%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Blake Corum	Dallas Goedert	Projected edge
ESPN	9.5 FP	8.3 FP	Blake Corum +1.1
Sleeper	9.3 FP	11.4 FP	Dallas Goedert +2.0
FantasyPros	12.5 FP	13.6 FP	Dallas Goedert +1.1

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Blake Corum: Thu 8:15 PM ET. Dallas Goedert: Sun 4:05 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

18.026.3

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 25.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 25.3Sleeper 25.9FantasyPros 23.1
25.9Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 24.6Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.0Sleeper 26.3FantasyPros 22.7
24.6Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs CLESun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 21.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.8Sleeper 18.0FantasyPros 19.1
21.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 13