Should I start Noah Gray or Ty Pezza in Week 13 (2026, Half-PPR)?

THE FF CALL

Start Noah Gray

Ty Pezza is on bye in Week 13 and projects for 0.0 FP. Noah Gray has a scheduled game and projects for 3.1 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Noah Gray: 5.3 FP recent scoring average.
Noah Gray: 2.5% matchup reduction against LAR.

Forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, 1:11 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Noah Gray

TE · KCStats & schedule

3.1FF projected

↑ +0.7 vs ESPN

at LAR

Thu 8:15 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Ty Pezza

TE · BALStats & schedule

0.0FF projected

BYE

Check bye / schedule

Why this pick?

Noah Gray

FF projection: 3.1 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN: 2.4 FP
Sleeper: 3.4 FP
FantasyPros: 2.0 FP
Boosted Trees: 3.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Noah Gray faces LAR in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 5.3 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 2.5%.

Ty Pezza

FF projection: 0.0 FP
Sleeper: 0.0 FP

BYE

Ty Pezza is on bye in Week 13 and projects for 0.0 FP. Noah Gray has a scheduled game and projects for 3.1 FP. Confirm his availability before kickoff.

Updated Nov 11, 2026, 1:11 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

9.213.3

FF MEAN

1
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs PHISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.3Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.7Sleeper 13.3FantasyPros 9.7
12.3Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.9Sleeper 12.6FantasyPros 9.3
12.0Expected FP
3
Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG vs SFSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.1Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.8Sleeper 9.3FantasyPros 9.2
10.1Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.