Should I start Jonah Coleman or Kyle Pitts Sr.? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Jonah Coleman

+4.5 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Jonah Coleman over Kyle Pitts Sr. for Week 13 Half-PPR: 13.7 projected points versus 9.2.

Jonah Coleman: 14.4 FP recent scoring average.
Kyle Pitts Sr.: 5.4 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 2:50 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Jonah Coleman

RB · DENStats & schedule

13.7FF projected

↓ -1.9 vs ESPN

vs MIA

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Kyle Pitts Sr.

TE · ATLStats & schedule

9.2FF projected

↑ +1.2 vs ESPN

vs DET

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Jonah Coleman

FF projection: 13.7 FP -1.9vs ESPN
ESPN: 15.6 FP
Sleeper: 13.5 FP
FantasyPros: 13.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 1.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jonah Coleman faces MIA in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 14.4 fantasy points.

Kyle Pitts Sr.

FF projection: 9.2 FP +1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.0 FP
Sleeper: 8.1 FP
FantasyPros: 9.4 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Kyle Pitts Sr. faces DET in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 5.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Jonah Coleman projects for 13.7 points in half-PPR scoring, 4.5 more than Kyle Pitts Sr.. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 2:50 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Jonah Coleman and Kyle Pitts Sr.?

Jonah Coleman holds a 4.5 FP projected edge over Kyle Pitts Sr.. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros lean toward Jonah Coleman, while Boosted Trees leans toward Kyle Pitts Sr.. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Jonah Coleman

Jonah Coleman has a 13.7 FP forecast in Half-PPR against MIA. His recorded recent scoring average is 14.4 FP, putting this forecast 0.7 points below that average.

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Kyle Pitts Sr. has a 9.2 FP forecast in Half-PPR against DET. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.4 FP, putting this forecast 3.8 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Jonah Coleman	Kyle Pitts Sr.	Projected edge
ESPN	15.6 FP	8.0 FP	Jonah Coleman +7.6
Sleeper	13.5 FP	8.1 FP	Jonah Coleman +5.4
FantasyPros	13.5 FP	9.4 FP	Jonah Coleman +4.1
Boosted Trees	1.7 FP	9.9 FP	Kyle Pitts Sr. +8.2

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Jonah Coleman: Sun 4:05 PM ET. Kyle Pitts Sr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.623.8

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.1Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 21.1
23.8Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.2Sleeper 22.4FantasyPros 18.7
20.2Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.9Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 17.6
19.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 13