Should I start Jaylen Waddle or Tyler Allgeier? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Tyler Allgeier

+0.0 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Tyler Allgeier over Jaylen Waddle for Week 13 Half-PPR: 9.9 projected points versus 9.8.

Jaylen Waddle: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Jaylen Waddle · Injury report dated Nov 8, 2026, 2:52 PM ET

Tyler Allgeier: 15.2 FP recent scoring average.
Jaylen Waddle: 7.6 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 14, 2026, 5:54 AM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Tyler Allgeier

RB · ARIStats & schedule

9.9FF projected

= 0.0 vs ESPN

vs PHI

Sun 4:05 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Jaylen Waddle

WR · DENStats & schedule

9.8FF projected

↓ -0.4 vs ESPN

vs MIA

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Why this pick?

Tyler Allgeier

FF projection: 9.9 FP Evenvs ESPN
ESPN: 9.9 FP
Sleeper: 9.6 FP
FantasyPros: 7.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 6.4 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tyler Allgeier faces PHI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 15.2 fantasy points.

Jaylen Waddle

FF projection: 9.8 FP -0.4vs ESPN
ESPN: 10.2 FP
Sleeper: 11.9 FP
FantasyPros: 9.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.6 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Jaylen Waddle faces MIA in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 7.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 5%. Jaylen Waddle is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Tyler Allgeier projects for 9.9 points, 0.0 more than Jaylen Waddle.

Updated Nov 14, 2026, 5:54 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Jaylen Waddle and Tyler Allgeier?

Tyler Allgeier holds a 0.0 FP projected edge over Jaylen Waddle. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees project Jaylen Waddle higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle has a 9.8 FP forecast in Half-PPR against MIA. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.6 FP, putting this forecast 2.2 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 5%; it is already included in the projection. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier has a 9.9 FP forecast in Half-PPR against PHI. His recorded recent scoring average is 15.2 FP, putting this forecast 5.3 points below that average.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Jaylen Waddle	Tyler Allgeier	Projected edge
ESPN	10.2 FP	9.9 FP	Jaylen Waddle +0.4
Sleeper	11.9 FP	9.6 FP	Jaylen Waddle +2.2
FantasyPros	9.8 FP	7.8 FP	Jaylen Waddle +2.1
Boosted Trees	8.6 FP	6.4 FP	Jaylen Waddle +2.2

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Jaylen Waddle: Sun 4:05 PM ET. Tyler Allgeier: Sun 4:05 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan ↗.

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

17.623.8

FF MEAN

1
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.1Sleeper 23.4FantasyPros 21.1
23.8Expected FP
2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 20.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 18.3Sleeper 22.4FantasyPros 18.7
20.2Expected FP
3
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 19.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 17.9Sleeper 20.9FantasyPros 17.6
19.2Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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Flex · Week 13