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Week 132026 ยท Half-PPR

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Should I start Carnell Tate or Tony Pollard? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Tony Pollard

+5.8 projected edge ยท Half-PPR

Start Tony Pollard over Carnell Tate for Week 13 Half-PPR: 16.6 projected points versus 10.8.

Carnell Tate: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play.

Carnell Tate ยท Injury report dated

  • Tony Pollard: 31.1 FP recent scoring average.
  • Tony Pollard: 3.75% matchup reduction against WAS.

Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR

Tony Pollard
Why this pick?

Tony Pollard

FF projection
16.6 FP +2.0vs ESPN
ESPN
14.6 FP
Sleeper
11.4 FP
FantasyPros
14.4 FP
Boosted Trees
12.8 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Tony Pollard faces WAS in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 31.1 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast down 3.75%.

Carnell Tate

FF projection
10.8 FP +0.9vs ESPN
ESPN
9.9 FP
Sleeper
12.3 FP
FantasyPros
9.5 FP
Boosted Trees
9.6 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Carnell Tate faces WAS in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 7.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%. Carnell Tate is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Tony Pollard projects for 16.6 points, 5.8 more than Carnell Tate.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 11:34 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Carnell Tate and Tony Pollard?

Tony Pollard holds a 5.8 FP projected edge over Carnell Tate. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper leans toward Carnell Tate, while ESPN, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees lean toward Tony Pollard. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate has a 10.8 FP forecast in Half-PPR against WAS. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.4 FP, putting this forecast 3.4 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 3.75%; it is already included in the projection. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard has a 16.6 FP forecast in Half-PPR against WAS. His recorded recent scoring average is 31.1 FP, putting this forecast 14.5 points below that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment reduces the FF estimate by 3.75%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side
SourceCarnell TateTony PollardProjected edge
ESPN9.9 FP14.6 FPTony Pollard +4.8
Sleeper12.3 FP11.4 FPCarnell Tate +0.9
FantasyPros9.5 FP14.4 FPTony Pollard +4.9
Boosted Trees9.6 FP12.8 FPTony Pollard +3.1

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Carnell Tate: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Tony Pollard: Sun 1:00 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your leagueโ€™s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan โ†—.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
16.323.8
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.8Expected FP
  2. 2
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR ยท SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.2Expected FP
  3. 3
    Christian McCaffreyRB ยท SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.6Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full FLEX rankings โ†—

YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK

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