Should I start Brenton Strange or Kyle Pitts Sr.? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

THE FF CALL

Start Kyle Pitts Sr.

+1.9 projected edge · Half-PPR

Start Kyle Pitts Sr. over Brenton Strange for Week 13 Half-PPR: 9.2 projected points versus 7.3.

Kyle Pitts Sr.: 5.4 FP recent scoring average.
Kyle Pitts Sr.: 10% matchup lift against DET.

Forecast updated Nov 15, 2026, 2:22 PM ET · Half-PPR

FF PICK

Kyle Pitts Sr.

TE · ATLStats & schedule

9.2FF projected

↑ +1.2 vs ESPN

vs DET

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Brenton Strange

TE · JACStats & schedule

7.3FF projected

↑ +0.2 vs ESPN

at CHI

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Why this pick?

Kyle Pitts Sr.

FF projection: 9.2 FP +1.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 8.0 FP
Sleeper: 8.1 FP
FantasyPros: 9.4 FP
Boosted Trees: 9.9 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Kyle Pitts Sr. faces DET in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 5.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Brenton Strange

FF projection: 7.3 FP +0.2vs ESPN
ESPN: 7.1 FP
Sleeper: 8.3 FP
FantasyPros: 6.6 FP
Boosted Trees: 7.7 FP; Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Brenton Strange faces CHI in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 4.8 fantasy points.

Kyle Pitts Sr. projects for 9.2 points in half-PPR scoring, 1.9 more than Brenton Strange. This is a projection-based recommendation, not a guarantee. Verify the latest injury report and active status before kickoff.

Updated Nov 15, 2026, 2:22 PM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Brenton Strange and Kyle Pitts Sr.?

Kyle Pitts Sr. holds a 1.9 FP projected edge over Brenton Strange. Read that as an expected-points preference, not a promise that he will finish higher.

The available estimates disagree: Sleeper leans toward Brenton Strange, while ESPN, FantasyPros, Boosted Trees lean toward Kyle Pitts Sr.. That disagreement is a reason to examine the matchup and availability rather than count providers as votes.

Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange has a 7.3 FP forecast in Half-PPR at CHI. His recorded recent scoring average is 4.8 FP, putting this forecast 2.4 points above that average.

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Kyle Pitts Sr. has a 9.2 FP forecast in Half-PPR against DET. His recorded recent scoring average is 5.4 FP, putting this forecast 3.8 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side

Source	Brenton Strange	Kyle Pitts Sr.	Projected edge
ESPN	7.1 FP	8.0 FP	Kyle Pitts Sr. +0.9
Sleeper	8.3 FP	8.1 FP	Brenton Strange +0.2
FantasyPros	6.6 FP	9.4 FP	Kyle Pitts Sr. +2.8
Boosted Trees	7.7 FP	9.9 FP	Kyle Pitts Sr. +2.2

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Brenton Strange: Sun 1:00 PM ET. Kyle Pitts Sr.: Sun 1:00 PM ET.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your league’s actual playoff weeks, build your ROS Report ↗.

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

TE. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

9.212.8

FF MEAN

1
Trey McBrideTE · ARI vs PHISun 4:05 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.2Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.7Sleeper 12.8FantasyPros 9.7
12.2Expected FP
2
George KittleTE · SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 12.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 11.9Sleeper 12.6FantasyPros 9.3
12.0Expected FP
3
Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG vs SFSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 10.4Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 9.8Sleeper 10.4FantasyPros 9.2
10.4Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

YOUR LINEUP · A CLOSER LOOK

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