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Week 132026 ยท Half-PPR

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Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Carnell Tate? (Half-PPR Week 13 2026)

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Check availability before choosing

Carnell Tate: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Carnell Tate ยท Injury report dated

  • Aaron Jones Sr.: 3.6 FP recent scoring average.
  • Aaron Jones Sr.: 10% matchup lift against CAR.

Forecast updated ยท Half-PPR

Why this pick?

Aaron Jones Sr.

FF projection
9.2 FP +0.7vs ESPN
ESPN
8.5 FP
Sleeper
10.0 FP
FantasyPros
9.3 FP
Boosted Trees
9.6 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Aaron Jones Sr. faces CAR in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 3.6 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 10%.

Carnell Tate

FF projection
10.8 FP +0.9vs ESPN
ESPN
9.9 FP
Sleeper
12.3 FP
FantasyPros
9.5 FP
Boosted Trees
9.6 FP
Experimental ยท saved Oct 27, 12:04 AM ET

Carnell Tate faces WAS in Week 13. Recent scoring average: 7.4 fantasy points. The position-specific defensive matchup adjusts the forecast up 3.75%. Carnell Tate is questionable. Check his availability before kickoff.

Carnell Tate: His availability is unresolved. Recheck his status before kickoff; a projection is not confirmation that he will play. His projections are shown below, but this comparison needs an availability check. Check back later this week for updated projections and injury news before setting your lineup.

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 10:34 AM ET. Projections can change before kickoff.

THE MATCHUP, IN CONTEXT

What separates Aaron Jones Sr. and Carnell Tate?

Availability takes priority over the points comparison. The headline warning above still applies; the supporting forecasts below do not clear an injured player to start.

ESPN, Sleeper, FantasyPros project Carnell Tate higher. Agreement across these available estimates is supporting context; the models can share inputs and are not independent confirmations.

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr. has a 9.2 FP forecast in Half-PPR against CAR. His recorded recent scoring average is 3.6 FP, putting this forecast 5.6 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 10%; it is already included in the projection.

Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate has a 10.8 FP forecast in Half-PPR against WAS. His recorded recent scoring average is 7.4 FP, putting this forecast 3.4 points above that average. The position-specific defensive adjustment raises the FF estimate by 3.75%; it is already included in the projection. His availability needs checking before kickoff; a projection does not confirm that he will play.

Compare the saved forecasts side by side
SourceAaron Jones Sr.Carnell TateProjected edge
ESPN8.5 FP9.9 FPCarnell Tate +1.3
Sleeper10.0 FP12.3 FPCarnell Tate +2.3
FantasyPros9.3 FP9.5 FPCarnell Tate +0.2
Boosted Trees9.6 FP9.6 FPEffectively level

Model save times and conditional-input notes are listed in Why this pick. These forecasts use the selected scoring preset; they do not replace custom league rules.

Before the first kickoff. Aaron Jones Sr.: Sun 4:25 PM ET. Carnell Tate: Sun 1:00 PM ET. If a questionable player has the later kickoff, keep an eligible later-game replacement available. Where your league allows it, putting a later-game starter in FLEX can preserve swap options.

This is a lineup choice, not an instruction to drop the other player. For bye coverage, roster moves and your leagueโ€™s actual playoff weeks, build your GamePlan โ†—.

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#1 Week ยท #1 ROS ยท #1 Playoffs
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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS ยท

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian ยท when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%โ— ESPNโ— Sleeperโ— FantasyPros
3 shown ยท common FP scale
16.323.8
FF MEAN
  1. 1
    Jahmyr GibbsRB ยท DET vs ATLSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    23.8Expected FP
  2. 2
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR ยท SEA vs DALMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
    20.2Expected FP
  3. 3
    Christian McCaffreyRB ยท SF vs NYGSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
    18.6Expected FP
How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10โ€“P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.

See full FLEX rankings โ†—

YOUR LINEUP ยท A CLOSER LOOK

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